Date: Sat, 15 Nov 2025 | 09:30 PM
Gold has long been a safe haven for investors, but recent fluctuations in its price have caught the attention of market analysts and consumers alike. On Saturday, gold prices slipped in both local and global markets, marking a notable shift after a week of gains. This article delves into the factors influencing these price movements, including monetary policy, economic data, and international trade dynamics.
Recent Price Movements
On this particular Saturday, gold prices experienced a decline, coinciding with the weekly closure of global exchanges. After a weekly gain of approximately 2.1%, sharp selling pressure emerged, leading to a decrease in local gold prices by about EGP 15. As reported by iSagha, a platform specializing in gold and jewelry trading, 21-carat gold was trading at EGP 5,450. Meanwhile, the global price of gold per ounce ended the week at $4,086, reflecting an increase of $85 over the week.
Local Market Insights
The local market saw fluctuations in various gold categories. The prices were as follows:
24-carat gold: EGP 6,229
18-carat gold: EGP 4,671
Gold pound: EGP 43,600
On Friday, the price of 21-carat gold opened at EGP 5,570 but closed at EGP 5,565, indicating a slight decline. Globally, the ounce of gold fell from $4,178 to $4,086, highlighting the interconnectedness of local and international markets.
Global Selling Pressure and Rate-Cut Expectations
The decline in gold prices can be attributed to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. On Friday, gold dropped by about 2%, reaching a daily low of $4,086. This decline followed a reassessment of the likelihood of a rate cut in December, which fell from 72% to 50%. Federal Reserve officials have been vocal about persistent inflation pressures, despite signs of a weakening labor market.
Fed Officials’ Stance
Key figures within the Federal Reserve, including Jeffrey Schmid from Kansas City, have emphasized that inflation remains “extremely high.” Fed Chair Steven Miran reiterated a hawkish stance, suggesting that current economic data calls for more tightening rather than easing. This sentiment has contributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.10% and real yields reaching 1.862%. Such conditions typically diminish gold’s appeal as an investment.
The Impact of the U.S. Government Shutdown
The recent conclusion of the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, lasting 43 days, is expected to have lingering effects on the economy. Some critical economic data, including October’s Consumer Price Index, has been permanently lost, creating gaps that the Federal Reserve may use to justify maintaining interest rates in December. Despite closing the week with a 2% gain, gold remains over 3% below its weekly peak, underscoring its sensitivity to Federal Reserve signals and shifts in investor risk appetite.
China’s Economic Slowdown
Another significant factor influencing gold prices is the economic slowdown in China. Bloomberg data indicates a sharper-than-expected contraction in China’s economic activity at the start of Q4. Fixed-asset investment has decreased by 1.7% in the first ten months of the year, while industrial output growth has slowed to 4.9%, the weakest since early 2025. Despite a government stimulus package worth one trillion yuan, domestic demand remains weak, and lending has not rebounded as anticipated. This slowdown in one of the world’s largest economies adds further pressure to global commodities, including gold.
New U.S. Trade Agreements
On the economic front, the U.S. has announced a new trade deal with Argentina aimed at boosting investment cooperation. This agreement grants preferential access for American exports, including pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and machinery, to Argentine markets. Additionally, frameworks for similar trade agreements with El Salvador and Ecuador have been unveiled. These developments may influence market dynamics and investor sentiment, further impacting gold prices.
Conclusion
As gold prices continue to fluctuate in response to various economic indicators and geopolitical events, investors must remain vigilant. The interplay between Federal Reserve policies, global economic conditions, and trade agreements will likely shape the future trajectory of gold prices. For now, the market remains sensitive to signals from the Fed and the broader economic landscape, making it crucial for stakeholders to stay informed and adaptable.
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